The US National Debt has increased by $1.2 trillion since the Debt Ceiling was raised just two months ago

The bond market is now pricing in 3 rate cuts by year-end and 3 more cuts in 2026. That would bring the Fed Funds Rate down to 2.83%. After a brief hiatus, easy money is back

The total number of jobs in the US has increased by less than 1% over the past year, the slowest growth rate since March 2021. In the past 50 years, this type of weakness in the jobs market has always preceded a Recession and a spike in the Unemployment Rate

Overall US CPI moved up to 2.9% in August, the highest level since January

At 4.3%, the US Unemployment Rate is now 0.9% above the cycle low from April 2023 (3.4%). Historically, a recession has started on average 3 months before that 0.9% move higher in the Unemployment Rate