The average yield for 10-year Treasury notes has been 4.5% since 1800. Perhaps that's one reason why markets tend to get a bit skiddish when we push above there. Particularly with some velocity

Crowded shorts often lead to reversals. The dollar is having its best month in 2025 

In real terms, gold is closing back in on all-time highs

This is now the 7th longest business cycle out of 35, going all the way back to 1854